Sabtu, 31 Desember 2022

James Webb Space Telescope Shows Big Bang Didn't Happen? Wait… - Walter Bradley Center for Natural and Artificial Intelligence

This story was #1 in 2022 at Mind Matters News in terms of reader numbers. As we approach the New Year, we are rerunning the top ten stories of 2022, based on reader interest. In “James Webb Space Telescope shows Big Bang didn’t happen? Wait…”, our News division looked at reports that the unexpected new data coming back from the telescope were inspiring panic among astronomers: Webb was expected to merely confirm the Standard Model of the universe but its images are “surprisingly smooth, surprisingly small and surprisingly old.” (August 13, 2022)

Our view at the time: 1) It’s no surprise if the Webb disconfirmed some widely accepted assumptions. New vistas do that. In fact, that’s how we know for sure that it left the launch pad. 😉 2) The panic was likely overblown. The big news for 2022 is a much better look at exoplanets, the moons of our solar system, and a variety of unusual stellar formations. 3) Disputes about the Big Bang are bound to be with us a long time, no matter what, because in part it is a metaphysical issue.

Physicist Eric J. Lerner comes to the point:

To everyone who sees them, the new James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) images of the cosmos are beautifully awe-inspiring. But to most professional astronomers and cosmologists, they are also extremely surprising—not at all what was predicted by theory. In the flood of technical astronomical papers published online since July 12, the authors report again and again that the images show surprisingly many galaxies, galaxies that are surprisingly smooth, surprisingly small and surprisingly old. Lots of surprises, and not necessarily pleasant ones. One paper’s title begins with the candid exclamation: “Panic!”

Why do the JWST’s images inspire panic among cosmologists? And what theory’s predictions are they contradicting? The papers don’t actually say. The truth that these papers don’t report is that the hypothesis that the JWST’s images are blatantly and repeatedly contradicting is the Big Bang Hypothesis that the universe began 14 billion years ago in an incredibly hot, dense state and has been expanding ever since. Since that hypothesis has been defended for decades as unquestionable truth by the vast majority of cosmological theorists, the new data is causing these theorists to panic. “Right now I find myself lying awake at three in the morning,” says Alison Kirkpatrick, an astronomer at the University of Kansas in Lawrence, “and wondering if everything I’ve done is wrong.” [Update: Kirkpatrick has protested Lerner’s handling of this quotation. See Note below.]

Eric J. Lerner, “The Big Bang didn’t happen” at IAI.TV (August 11, 2022)

Although we didn’t usually hear of it, there’s been dissatisfaction with the Standard Model, which begins with the Big Bang, ever since it was first proposed by Georges Lemaitre nearly a century ago. But no one expected the James Webb Space Telescope to contribute to the debate.

Physicist Eric J. Lerner comes to the point:

To everyone who sees them, the new James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) images of the cosmos are beautifully awe-inspiring. But to most professional astronomers and cosmologists, they are also extremely surprising—not at all what was predicted by theory. In the flood of technical astronomical papers published online since July 12, the authors report again and again that the images show surprisingly many galaxies, galaxies that are surprisingly smooth, surprisingly small and surprisingly old. Lots of surprises, and not necessarily pleasant ones. One paper’s title begins with the candid exclamation: “Panic!”

Why do the JWST’s images inspire panic among cosmologists? And what theory’s predictions are they contradicting? The papers don’t actually say. The truth that these papers don’t report is that the hypothesis that the JWST’s images are blatantly and repeatedly contradicting is the Big Bang Hypothesis that the universe began 14 billion years ago in an incredibly hot, dense state and has been expanding ever since. Since that hypothesis has been defended for decades as unquestionable truth by the vast majority of cosmological theorists, the new data is causing these theorists to panic. “Right now I find myself lying awake at three in the morning,” says Alison Kirkpatrick, an astronomer at the University of Kansas in Lawrence, “and wondering if everything I’ve done is wrong.” [Update: Kirkpatrick has protested Lerner’s handling of this quotation. See Note below.]

Eric J. Lerner, “The Big Bang didn’t happen” at IAI.TV (August 11, 2022)

Although we didn’t usually hear of it, there’s been dissatisfaction with the Standard Model, which begins with the Big Bang, ever since it was first proposed by Georges Lemaitre nearly a century ago. But no one expected the James Webb Space Telescope to contribute to the debate.

Physicist Eric J. Lerner comes to the point:

To everyone who sees them, the new James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) images of the cosmos are beautifully awe-inspiring. But to most professional astronomers and cosmologists, they are also extremely surprising—not at all what was predicted by theory. In the flood of technical astronomical papers published online since July 12, the authors report again and again that the images show surprisingly many galaxies, galaxies that are surprisingly smooth, surprisingly small and surprisingly old. Lots of surprises, and not necessarily pleasant ones. One paper’s title begins with the candid exclamation: “Panic!”

Why do the JWST’s images inspire panic among cosmologists? And what theory’s predictions are they contradicting? The papers don’t actually say. The truth that these papers don’t report is that the hypothesis that the JWST’s images are blatantly and repeatedly contradicting is the Big Bang Hypothesis that the universe began 14 billion years ago in an incredibly hot, dense state and has been expanding ever since. Since that hypothesis has been defended for decades as unquestionable truth by the vast majority of cosmological theorists, the new data is causing these theorists to panic. “Right now I find myself lying awake at three in the morning,” says Alison Kirkpatrick, an astronomer at the University of Kansas in Lawrence, “and wondering if everything I’ve done is wrong.” [Update: Kirkpatrick has protested Lerner’s handling of this quotation. See Note below.]

Eric J. Lerner, “The Big Bang didn’t happen” at IAI.TV (August 11, 2022)

Although we didn’t usually hear of it, there’s been dissatisfaction with the Standard Model, which begins with the Big Bang, ever since it was first proposed by Georges Lemaitre nearly a century ago. But no one expected the James Webb Space Telescope to contribute to the debate.

Now, Lerner is the author of a book called The Big Bang Never Happened (1992) but — while that makes him an interested party — it doesn’t make him wrong. He will be speaking at the HowTheLightGetsIn festival in London (September 17–18, 2022) sponsored by the Institute for Art and Ideas (IAI), as a participant in the “Cosmology and the Big Bust” debate.

The upcoming debate, which features philosopher of science Bjørn Ekeberg and Yale astrophysicist Priyamvada Natarajan, along with Lerner, is premised as follows:

The Big Bang theory crucially depends on the ‘inflation’ hypothesis that at the outset the universe expanded many orders of magnitude faster than the speed of light. But experiments have failed to prove evidence of cosmic inflation and since the theory’s inception it has been beset by deep puzzles. Now one of its founders, Paul Steinhardt has denounced the theory as mistaken and ‘scientifically meaningless’.

Do we have to give up the theory of cosmic inflation and seek a radical alternative? Might alternative theories like the Big Bounce, or abandoning the speed of light provide a solution? Or are such alternatives merely sticking plasters to avoid the more radical conclusion that it is time to give up on the Big Bang altogether?

Here’s a debate on this general topic from last year’s festival (but without JWST data). It features theoretical physicist Sabine Hossenfelder, author of Lost in Math: How Beauty Leads Physics Astray, along with Ekeberg and particle physicist Sam Henry.

So, yes, it’s been a serious topic of discussion for a while. Now, what to make of Eric Lerner’s approach? Experimental physicist Rob Sheldon offered Mind Matters News some thoughts and a potential solution:

The current thinking is that the Big Bang Nucleosynthesis era produced 75% Hydrogen and 25% Helium (by weight) and a smattering of Lithium, but not much else. Then after 300 thousand years, the universe cooled down enough to produce atoms, and gravitational attraction slowly, slowly built up stars. The early ones were big enough to explode, and the shock waves sent through the hydrogen gas caused pockets to form that began star-making in earnest. But it still took 500 million years to get enough stars for a galaxy. Now the earlier a galaxy forms, the further back in time and the further away it is from astronomers today, and the further away it is the faster it is moving away from us. This movement causes the light to be redshifted. So robust is this relationship, that astronomers replace “time” with “red-shift”. But the Hubble Space Telescope could only see visible light, and those early galaxies were so red-shifted they were only “visible” in the infra-red, which is where the James Webb telescope shines. So one of the goals of the James Webb telescope was to see the earliest galaxies, and indeed, they’re seeing a lot.

So what does this mean for the standard model?

Theorists have an answer. Lot’s of clumpy dark matter to get the Hydrogen gas to clump early. Which leads to the question, “why isn’t the dark matter clumpy now?”

I don’t have endurance to run down every rabbit trail cosmologists propose. Instead, I propose that the first stars were not made of Hydrogen, they were made of ice. The Big Bang synthesized abundant C and O which combined with H to form H20, CO2, CH4 etc. These gases freeze relatively early in the universe time frame, so clumping was not gravitational but physico-chemical, the same way snowflakes form. So we didn’t have to wait 500 million years for snowflakes to clump, it happen very quickly once the universe cooled below the freezing point. Hence James Webb sees lots of red-shifted galaxies from the early universe.

The paper on that (and maybe the prediction of what James Webb would find?) is in my open-access paper in Communications of the Blythe Institute in 2021.

That’s one possible solution. We know it’s science when it’s always posing challenges.

This sometimes comes up: Could the universe have always existed? The problem is, if the universe had existed for an infinite amount of time, everything that could possibly happen must already have happened an infinite number of times — including that we don’t exist and never did. But we know we do exist. As Robert J. Marks has pointed out, playing with infinity quickly results in absurdity. To do science, we must accept that some events are real and not mutually contradictory. So we can assume that the universe got started but we are a little less sure just now how that happened.

Note: In the wake of Lerner’s article, Kirkpatrick went onto her Twitter account to protest that Lerner misrepresented her statement to Nature about her “wondering if everything I’ve done is wrong.” Her current Twitter account name makes her view on a cosmic beginning clear: “Allison the Big Bang happened Kirkpatrick.” What is she questioning then? From the drift of the Nature article, it appears to be subsidiary theories within the larger Big-Bang tent — e.g., theories of galaxy evolution and, as she says, “the speed at which star formation occurs.” Clearly JWST has raised as many questions as it has provided answers – some quite intense.

You may also wish to read: Did physicists open a portal to extra time dimension, as claimed? That’s the way the story reads at Scientific American. But experimental physicist Rob Sheldon says not so fast… The physicists, constructing “time crystals”, happened on an error correction technique for quantum computers. The rest is the story we all wish we were in.

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2022-12-31 15:27:40Z
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Science on space station in 2022 - See the best pics! - VideoFromSpace

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2022-12-31 14:34:48Z
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Jumat, 30 Desember 2022

NASA Assessing Crew Dragon's Ability to Accommodate All Seven ISS Crew - SpacePolicyOnline.com

As NASA and Roscosmos determine what to do about the Soyuz MS-22 situation, one potential option is using SpaceX’s Crew Dragon Endurance to bring all seven ISS crew members home. Crew Dragon actually is designed for seven people, but NASA needs only four seats so that is the number in Endurance right now. NASA is asking SpaceX what it would take to accommodate the three who arrived on Soyuz MS-22 as well.

Russia’s Soyuz MS-22 spacecraft, which delivered two Russian cosmonauts and an American astronaut to the ISS in September and is supposed to bring them home in March, sprang a leak two weeks ago releasing all the coolant in one of its cooling loops.

Russia’s space agency Roscosmos is trying to determine what happened and whether the spacecraft can maintain a thermal environment safe enough to transport the crew or if another Soyuz needs to be sent up empty for them to use instead for the return trip.

NASA and Roscosmos are working closely together since an American astronaut is part of the Soyuz MS-22 crew.

Soyuz MS-22 crew, L-R: Frank Rubio (NASA), Sergey Prokopyev (Roscosmos), Dmitri Petelin (Roscosmos). Photo credit: Bill Ingalls

Also aboard the ISS right now are four crew members who arrived on SpaceX’s Crew Dragon Endurance — Crew-5, composed of two Americans, a Japanese, and a Russian.

Crew-5 crew, L-R: Anna Kikina (Roscosmos), Josh Cassada (NASA), Nicole Mann (NASA), Koichi Wakata (JAXA).

In an update posted on the ISS blog this afternoon, NASA said another option under consideration is whether all seven could fit in Endurance.

As a part of the analysis, NASA also reached out to SpaceX about its capability to return additional crew members aboard Dragon if needed in an emergency, although the primary focus is on understanding the post-leak capabilities of the Soyuz MS-22 spacecraft.

A NASA spokesman confirmed to SpacePolicyOnline.com that “the team is looking at the capability of the Dragon already at the International Space Station” to return additional crew, not sending up another Crew Dragon that might be outfitted differently.

SpaceX advertises Crew Dragon as capable of carrying seven, but each of the flights so far has carried four and the company’s promotional video shows four seats.

SpaceX has flown Crew Dragons with people aboard six times for NASA (Demo-2, Crew-1, Crew-2, Crew-3, Crew-4 and Crew-5) and twice for private astronauts (Inspiration4 and Axiom-1). The spacecraft are reusable. Four exist right now — Endeavour, Resilience, Endurance and Freedom — and another is under construction. Crew-5 is the second flight of Endurance.

A decision on what to do about the Soyuz MS-22 situation is expected in January. NASA and Roscosmos insist there is no rush because the crew is safe inside the ISS. The blog post today was mostly a routine update on what the crew members are doing accompanied by a festive photo of the U.S.-segment crew members (Mann, Cassada, Rubio, and Wakata).

From left: Josh Cassada, Nicole Mann, and Frank Rubio, all from NASA, and Koichi Wakata from JAXA inside the cupola as the ISS orbited 270 miles above the southern Atlantic Ocean on Dec. 25, 2022. Photo credit: NASA

However, Soyuz and Crew Dragon also are the lifeboats they would need in the event of an emergency evacuation.

Nominally, Soyuz MS-23 is scheduled for launch in mid-March with the replacements for Prokopyev, Petelin and Rubio, but Roscosmos says it could move that up by two or three weeks and launch it empty if necessary. Soyuz can rendezvous and dock with the ISS autonomously.

The U.S.-Russian-Japanese-European-Canadian International Space Station has been permanently occupied by international crews rotating on roughly 4-6 month schedules for more than 22 years.

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2022-12-30 23:01:00Z
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Kamis, 29 Desember 2022

Should Planetary Defence Take Center Stage? - Universe Today

Throughout the Solar System, planets and moons bear the scars of a past fraught with collisions. The Moon, Mercury, and Mars are so scarred from these impacts that craters overlap one another on their surfaces. Earth was subject to the same bombardment, though most of its impact scars disappeared over time due to active geology.

But some are still visible, and we know how catastrophic some of these impacts were for life.

Our Solar System is a calm, sedate place compared to what it used to be. Back in Earth’s early ages, there were far more rocks moving around and far more collisions. Episodes like the Late Heavy Bombardment 4 billion years ago illustrate that fact.

The Granddaddy of impacts on Earth is the Chicxulub Impact Event, the strike that spelled doom for the dinosaurs and about 75% of all plant and animal species in existence at the time. The Chicxulub impactor, which was almost certainly an asteroid rather than a comet, was about 180 kilometres (110 miles) in diameter and 20 kilometres (12 miles) in depth. If something that massive struck Earth now, it would end human civilization.

The threat of a massive asteroid impact has decreased with time, but the risk will never be zero. Image Credit: NASA/Don Davis
The threat of a massive asteroid impact has decreased with time, but the risk will never be zero. Image Credit: NASA/Don Davis

Even though the Solar System has calmed down, there’s still a non-zero chance of a large asteroid striking Earth, triggering an extinction, and wiping out our civilization. Astronomers predict that a 1 km (0.62 mi) diameter asteroid will slam into Earth once every 440,000 years on average. That’s only a fraction of the size of the Chicxulub impactor, but an asteroid that size would still have an explosive impact force of 46,300 Megatons of TNT and would leave a crater 13.6 km (8.5 mi) in diameter. Depending on the circumstances, it could also trigger massive forest fires and even tsunamis. That would be devastating.

But the largest rocks are the easiest to spot, and we know where most of them are and how they orbit the Sun. The risk we face comes mostly from undetected smaller bodies. Rocks too small to wipe out civilization—but large enough to wipe out a city, a country, to kill large numbers of people and render large amounts of land uninhabitable and non-arable—are still out there.

The Vredefort Crater in modern-day South Africa is the largest impact structure on Earth. It was created about 2 billion years ago by the largest object to impact Earth since the Hadean Eon. Now it's covered with farmland. Image Credit: Left: NASA, Right: Google Earth.
The Vredefort Crater in modern-day South Africa is the largest impact structure on Earth. It was created about 2 billion years ago by the largest object to impact Earth since the Hadean Eon. Now it’s covered with farmland. Image Credit: Left: NASA, Right: Google Earth.

There’s a concerted effort to find all the rocks that could threaten Earth and one day mount a defence against them. They’re called Near Earth Objects or NEOs. In 2005, the US Congress directed NASA to find 90% of NEOs more than 140 meters (460 feet) across that come within 30 million miles (48 million kilometres) of our planet’s orbit. The effort falls under the auspices of NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office (PDCO.)

The effort to detect dangerous space rocks doesn’t generate the same excitement as other endeavours and missions. Sweeping cosmic images from the James Webb Space Telescope generate the kind of enthusiasm that unseen asteroids will never generate. And the spine-tingling landing of the Perseverance Rover on the surface of Mars is far more captivating than a statistical count of small space rocks.

But a lot hangs in the balance when it comes to asteroids, Earth, collisions, and affairs here on Earth. When we dig below the headlines, the effort to catalogue asteroids and figure out how to protect Earth from deadly impacts is its own intriguing story. One of the emerging characters in that story is NASA’s Neo Surveyor.

“NEO Surveyor represents the next generation for NASA’s ability to quickly detect, track, and characterize potentially hazardous near-Earth objects.”

Lindley Johnson, NASA’s Planetary Defense Officer at PDCO.

The NEO Surveyor is a small space telescope with only one mission: to hunt down and catalogue asteroids that threaten Earth. The NEO Surveyor just passed a critical review, and the spacecraft is transitioning into the final design-and-fabrication phase. The spacecraft’s mission is to locate the hardest-to-find Near Earth Objects, the ones that have so far evaded our asteroid-hunting efforts.

When it comes to detecting NEOs, the low-hanging fruit has been picked. We know where the large ones are and where their orbits take them. Ground-based telescopes have proven effective at finding many of them. What’s left are the difficult-to-spot rocks.

“NEO Surveyor represents the next generation for NASA’s ability to quickly detect, track, and characterize potentially hazardous near-Earth objects,” said Lindley Johnson, NASA’s Planetary Defense Officer at PDCO. “Ground-based telescopes remain essential for us to continually watch the skies, but a space-based infrared observatory is the ultimate high ground that will enable NASA’s planetary defence strategy.”

A white paper for NEO said that the mission would cost about $600 million. For that price, it would help find the most elusive asteroids. The white paper says it’ll find smaller NEOs that “… constitute a newly recognized threat regime that cannot be efficiently detected from the ground.” According to the initial white paper, the NEO Surveyor will detect about:

  • 85% of all > 100-meter diameter NEOs
  • 70% of all > 60-meter diameter NEOs
  • 50% of all > 50-meter diameter NEOs

NASA says that space rocks smaller than 25 meters (about 82 feet) will most likely burn up as they enter the Earth’s atmosphere and cause little or no damage.

NEO’s mission parameters have evolved since the white paper. NASA now estimates a $1.2 billion price tag and a launch no later than 2028. NEO Surveyor will conduct a five-year baseline survey to find at least two-thirds of the near-Earth objects larger than 140 meters (460 feet). These rocks are large enough to cause major regional damage if they strike Earth. And while we already know where many of those are, there are two types of asteroids in that size range that are very difficult to detect: bright and dark. Most of them are hidden in the Sun’s glare, and that’s where NEO is designed to ferret them out. The NEO Surveyor is built to find them with its single instrument: a 50 cm (20 in) telescope that sees in two infrared wavelengths.

The NEO Surveyor will be neighbours with the James Webb Space Telescope. The JWST is in a halo orbit at the L2 point, and the Surveyor will orbit at the L1 point. From that vantage point, it’ll do what even our most powerful ground-based telescopes weren’t built to do: search for asteroids in the glare of the Sun, one of their last hiding places.

Large, deadly asteroids are still out there, though the pace at which we find them has slowed. In January 2022, American astronomer Scott Sheppard discovered a kilometre-sized asteroid named 2022 AP7. It was the largest asteroid discovered in eight years and is a potentially hazardous object (PHO.) Critically, Shepard found 2022 AP7 in the Sun’s glare, exactly where NEO Surveyor will look. Sheppard found it using an unlikely tool, the Dark Energy Camera. Even though 2022 AP7 poses no threat to Earth—at least not for centuries—an object this large could potentially cause a mass extinction if it strikes Earth. And while it’s good news that we found it, it’s also unnerving. How many more are there?

NEO Surveyor should find more of them if they’re out there. NASA forecasts that the telescope will find tens of thousands of new NEOs as small as 30 m (98 ft) in diameter. As it does so, it’ll also fulfill its secondary science objectives: to detect and characterize about one million asteroids in the main belt, thousands of comets, and to identify NEOs that could be targeted for exploration, either human or robotic.

Not only do we need to protect Earth from asteroid strikes, but we also need to learn more about these ancient rocks. NEO Surveyor can help by identifying asteroids that are good targets for robotic exploration. This image is an artist's concept of NASA's OSIRIS-REx spacecraft as it readies itself to touch the surface of the asteroid Bennu. Credits: NASA/Goddard/University of Arizona
Not only do we need to protect Earth from asteroid strikes, but we also need to learn more about these ancient rocks. NEO Surveyor can help by identifying asteroids that are good targets for robotic exploration. This image is an artist’s concept of NASA’s OSIRIS-REx spacecraft as it readies itself to touch the surface of the asteroid Bennu. Credits: NASA/Goddard/University of Arizona

NEO Surveyor isn’t the only telescope hunting asteroids. Sometime in 2023, the Vera Rubin Observatory will see its first light. Its powerful wide-angle camera will capture twin 15-second exposures in succession and will cover the entire southern sky every three nights. That imaging strategy will find anything transient in the night sky, and a 2016 paper in the Astronomical Journal says the VRO could detect 62% of the NEO population of size 140 meters or greater.

We’re strengthening our asteroid-detecting capabilities, and the popular press has caught on. There are now regular headlines regarding asteroids passing close to Earth. In the panicky press, headlines cry wolf and overstate the danger, inviting us to click and become titillated with misinformation. But the real threat isn’t these harmless asteroids that pass by so frequently that they’re little more than background noise. The real threat is the ones on a collision course.

Hopefully, when an asteroid is on a collision course with Earth, we’ll have plenty of advance warning. At least, that’s the plan. And thanks to the NEO Surveyor and other efforts, we should have sufficient notice.

But what happens then? We still don’t know for sure, but scientists are working on it.

The astronomy community holds conferences to game the detection of threatening asteroids. They’re called Planetary Defence Conferences; the last one was held (virtually) in 2021. The next one is in April 2023.

The Conference asks teams of scientists to respond to a fictional asteroid detection scenario. At the 2021 Conference, an asteroid named PDC 2021 was detected on April 21st. Over the following days, more information was revealed to the participants to simulate what would happen as astronomers gathered more data during an asteroid’s approach:

  • The most likely potential impact occurs on October 20, 2021 – just 6 months away.
  • The probability of that impact is low, about 1 chance in 2500, but that’s after only two days of tracking.
  • The asteroid’s size could range anywhere from as small as 35 meters to as large as 700 meters.
  • When first detected, the asteroid is about 0.38 au (57 million kilometres or 35 million miles) from Earth.
  • It’s travelling at about 5 km/s (3 mi/s or 11,000 mph.)
  • The asteroid is too distant to be detected by radar and will not come within radar range until its potentially impacting approach in October.
  • Astronomers continue to track the asteroid every night after discovery, and the impact probability steadily increases.

When the Conference begins, the impact probability is at 5% and increasing. The final mock radar observations revealed that the incoming asteroid was 105 meters across and would strike an area bordering Germany, the Czech Republic, and Austria. What could be done?

The fictional asteroid strike in the PDC 2021 Conference struck Europe. The shaded regions in this image show where the impact is most likely to occur. There is a 99% chance the impact will be located within the outer contour, 87% inside the middle contour, and 40% inside the central dark red region. Image Credit: Google Earth/CNEOS

Not much. All the conference attendees could come up with was Civil Defense and Emergency Preparation. All we could do was evacuate people and somehow try to harden and protect the most critical infrastructure. Nobody’s satisfied with that.

We’re reaching the point where we can mount some defence against asteroids on a collision course with our world. But only if we know where these asteroids are and when they’ll impact Earth. NEO Surveyor and other endeavours will handle that. But what do we do next when one comes for us? Evacuate people and clutch our pearls? That would be a devastating, demoralizing failure for all of humanity.

It’s critical that we learn more about asteroids. They’re not all the same, and we need to know more about their composition, what types there are, and what methods will work best to defend ourselves. Though Hollywood (and Russia) might lean on massive explosive devices to protect Earth, others think that’s a crude and possibly ineffective method. Deflection might be easier, cheaper, and more reliable. And probably safer.

NASA launched its DART (Double Asteroid Re-Direction Test) spacecraft in November 2021. DART’s mission was to test the deflection of asteroids. It explored how a spacecraft could deflect an asteroid with a given impact mass. Its target was Dimorphos, the small moon of a larger asteroid named Didymos.

On 26 September 2022, the 610 kg (1,340 lb) DART probe crashed into Dimorphos. It struck Dimorphos in the opposite direction of its rotation, and the moon’s orbital speed dropped slightly, reducing the radius of its orbit around Didymos. It also modified Didymos’ trajectory and blasted some ejecta into space.

NASA planned the impact so that multiple ground-based observatories could monitor the results, including the cloud of ejecta emitted after the impact. In 2024, the ESA will launch the HERA spacecraft to visit Didymos/Dimorphos. HERA will arrive in 2026 and perform detailed observations of the moon and how the impact affected its surface.

We’ve sampled asteroids and comets, and now we’ve sent spacecraft to impact with both. These efforts teach us more about them and how to prepare for one with our name on it. But we’ve still got a long way to go. And while we hope we’ll have enough advance warning to prepare and launch a kinetic impactor to deal with the threat, what happens if we don’t have enough time for that?

Philip Lubin is a Physics Professor at the University of California, Santa Barbara. Lubin is developing an idea called PI-Terminal Defense for Humanity. PI stands for “Pulverize It!” and outlines a potential response to an asteroid that comes for Earth on short notice. In that situation, we may not have time to launch an impactor. Instead, we should have specialized spacecraft available on short notice, waiting to be launched when needed.

Lubin presented his PI Planetary Defence idea at the 2021 Planetary Defence Conference. “So far, humanity has been spared large-scale catastrophe as was visited upon our previous tenants, but counting upon being “lucky” is a poor strategy in the longer term,” Philip Lubin said in 2021.

Lubin’s idea is to launch a spacecraft that would pulverize a larger asteroid into smaller chunks. Those chunks might still head for Earth, but they’d be smaller and more likely to burn up in the atmosphere and be rendered harmless. Depending on the asteroid’s size and the point of impact, some could reach the surface and cause serious damage. But widespread destruction and even extinction could be avoided.

The Pulverize It (PI) impactor would feature an array of rods, all of which would penetrate the asteroid. Some of the rods would fracture the asteroid, and some would contain explosives. The result is a cloud of debris headed for Earth rather than one solid chunk of rock. It could save us.

In the Pulverize It scenario, an asteroid heading for Earth would be struck with an impactor that had an array of rods, some with explosives. The asteroid, or comet, would be broken into smaller pieces that pose less of a threat. Image Credit: Lubin/Experimental Cosmology Group, UCSB.
In the Pulverize It scenario, an asteroid heading for Earth would be struck with an impactor that had an array of rods, some with explosives. The asteroid, or comet, would be broken into smaller pieces that pose less of a threat. Image Credit: Lubin/Experimental Cosmology Group, UCSB.

PI impactor (s) could wait in orbit somewhere or even on the surface of the Moon until they’re needed. They’re nimble enough to act in scenarios where we have only days, maybe weeks, rather than months advance notice of an impending asteroid strike. They could also act as backups in the event of a kinetic impactor that failed or missed its target.

Lubin’s Pulverize It idea has merit, enough merit that NASA made it a Phase One awardee in the NASA Innovative Advanced Concepts (NIAC) program.

We’ll never be able to reduce the risk of asteroid strikes to zero. Asteroids follow orbits that are mostly predictable but never completely. Everything in space is moving, and sometimes a larger body can perturb a smaller body, changing its orbit and sending it on a collision course with Earth or another body. It’s like Jefferson’s words about Liberty: “Eternal vigilance is the price of Liberty.” We can never become complacent to the threat of an impact.

For any single one of us, the likelihood of living during the approach of a deadly asteroid is very low. But for humanity as a whole and the rest of life on Earth, the probability rises as the time span under consideration lengthens.

While many of humanity’s worst problems and catastrophes are self-inflicted, nature is also full of threats. Those threats will always exist, and we can use our big brains to prepare. We’re approaching the point where we can not only detect nature’s asteroid threat but protect ourselves.

And it’s only a matter of time before history repeats itself and one comes for us.

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2022-12-29 22:27:14Z
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Rabu, 28 Desember 2022

Navigation Could be Done on the Moon Just by Looking at Nearby Landmarks - Universe Today

When humans start living and working on the Moon in the Artemis missions, they’re going to need good navigational aids. Sure, they’ll have a GPS equivalent to help them find their way around. And, there’ll be LunaNet, the Moon’s equivalent to the Internet. But, there are places on the lunar that are pretty remote. In those cases, explorers could require more than one method for communication and navigation. That prompted NASA Goddard research engineer Alvin Yew to create an AI-driven local map service. It uses local landmarks for navigation.

The idea is to use already-gathered surface data from astronaut photographs and mapping missions to provide overlapping navigational aids. “For safety and science geotagging, it’s important for explorers to know exactly where they are as they explore the lunar landscape,” said Alvin Yew, a research engineer at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland. “Equipping an onboard device with a local map would support any mission, whether robotic or human.”

Having a map-based system as a backup would make life a lot easier for explorers in craters, for example, said Yew. “The motivation for me was to enable lunar crater exploration, where the entire horizon would be the crater rim.”

The collection of ridges, craters, and boulders that form a lunar horizon can be used by an artificial intelligence to accurately locate a lunar traveler. A system being developed by Research Engineer Alvin Yew would provide a backup location service for future explorers, robotic or human.
Credits: NASA/MoonTrek/Alvin Yew
The collection of ridges, craters, and boulders that form a lunar horizon can be used by artificial intelligence to accurately locate a lunar traveler. A system being developed by Research Engineer Alvin Yew would provide a backup location service for future explorers, robotic or human. Credits: NASA/MoonTrek/Alvin Yew

Using Moon Mapping Data for Navigational Aid

The heart of Yew’s system is data from the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter. That spacecraft is mapping the Moon’s surface in the highest possible detail and performing other lunar science and exploration tasks. The onboard Lunar Orbiter Laser Altimeter (LOLA) has provided high-resolution topographic maps of the Moon.

Yew fed LOLA data into an AI program that uses digital elevation models to recreate features on the lunar horizon. It makes them look as they would appear to an explorer on the lunar surface. The result is a series of digital panoramas. THE AI can correlate them with known surface objects—such as large boulders or ridges. The goal is to provide accurate location identification for any given area.

“Conceptually, it’s like going outside and trying to figure out where you are by surveying the horizon and surrounding landmarks,” Yew said. “While a ballpark location estimate might be easy for a person, we want to demonstrate accuracy on the ground down to less than 30 feet (9 meters). This accuracy opens the door to a broad range of mission concepts for future exploration.”

Yew’s geolocation system also has roots in the capabilities of GIANT (Goddard Image Analysis and Navigation Tool), developed by Goddard engineer Andrew Liounis developed it. Scientists used GIANT to double-check and verify navigation data for NASA’s OSIRIS-REx mission. That spacecraft went to the asteroid Bennu to collect a sample for analysis here on Earth.

Moon Maps in Your Device

There may soon come a time when a lunar explorer will head out to study various surface features. They’ll be equipped with cameras and communication equipment. That’s similar to Earth geologists heading into the field with a DSLR and a cellphone with GPS and satellite access. They can find their way around by noting landmarks, but it’s always useful to have backup methods. Of course, here on Earth, we have multiple communication networks.

LunaNet concept graphic for a possible communication and navigation device used on the Moon.
Credits: NASA/Reese Patillo
LunaNet concept graphic for a possible communication and navigation device used on the Moon. Credits: NASA/Reese Patillo

On the Moon, that infrastructure isn’t in place. But, it should be there when the Artemis mission is fully underway. Still, it won’t be long before those lunar geologists are “in the field” themselves. And, they’ll need all the help they can get as they do their work. According to a study published by Goddard researcher Erwan Mazarico, a lunar surface explorer can see at most up to about 180 miles (300 kilometers) from any unobstructed location on the Moon. That makes long-term surface studies across wide areas a bit more challenging. Ideally, a surface explorer could use the “app” that Yew is developing in a handheld device. Like a portable GPS unit, a lunar wayfinding device would help astronauts in regions that don’t have the greatest line-of-site. Onboard terrain data sets including elevation data would be part of its software.

Yew’s geolocation system has some likely applications beyond the Moon. Even on Earth, location technology like Yew’s will help explorers in terrain where GPS signals are obstructed or subject to interference. This use of AI-interpreted visual data against known models of the lunar surface could provide a new generation of navigation tools not just for Earth and the Moon, but even on Mars.

For More Information

NASA Developing AI to Steer Using Landmarks — On the Moon
Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter
LunaNet: Empowering Artemis with Communications and Navigation Interoperability

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2022-12-28 23:32:55Z
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NASA engineer teaches AI to be 'GPS-like' to guide astronauts over the lunar surface - Interesting Engineering

LunaNet concept graphic

Without instruments like the GPS we have on Earth, scientists have been attempting for years to figure out how to travel over the lunar surface.

Since the Moon's atmosphere is significantly thinner than Earth's, it is challenging to determine the size and distance of distant landmarks when looking at the horizon. 

Landmarks like trees or buildings on Earth can serve as fuzzy but useful distance measures- features that are non-existent on the Moon. 

Teaching AI to be 'GPS-like'

An astronaut on the Moon would also have trouble navigating the vast, unexplored area because there is no atmosphere to scatter light. Thanks to the Sun's powerful beams, these cause vision and depth perception to be altered.

Now, Alvin Yew, a research engineer at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, is creating an AI system that leads explorers around the lunar surface. 

Like how our GPS pinpoints places on Earth, Yew is teaching artificial intelligence to mimic lunar horizon features as they would appear to a lunar explorer.

The technology was developed using data from NASA's Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter. More specifically, it utilizes the Lunar Orbiter Laser Altimeter (LOLA), which measures slopes and lunar surface roughness. Simply put, LOLA generates high-resolution topographic maps of the Moon. 

These digitized panoramas are then exploited to match images captured by a rover or astronaut with known boulders, ridges, and even craters, allowing precise location identification for any given area.

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LunaNet: Complementing the Moon's upcoming internet

"For safety and science geotagging, it's important for explorers to know exactly where they are as they explore the lunar landscape," said Alvin Yew in a NASA press release

"Conceptually, it's like going outside and trying to figure out where you are by surveying the horizon and surrounding landmarks," Yew said. 

"While a ballpark location estimate might be easy for a person, we want to demonstrate accuracy on the ground down to less than 30 feet (9 meters). This accuracy opens the door to a broad range of mission concepts for future exploration."

Yew's AI system will also support LunaNet, the Moon's upcoming internet. According to NASA researchers, the collection of lunar satellites seeks to provide internet connectivity comparable to that on Earth. 

The idea is that LunaNet will serve as a network that spacecraft and future astronauts can access without organizing data transfers in advance, as space missions do presently. 

A 'back-up' for dangerous space missions

Still, Yew's AI system would not so much help out in the sense of providing internet. Instead, it could serve as a geolocation backup should communication signals not be available, particularly in dangerous space missions.  

According to NASA, Yew's system could be developed into a handheld device that would combine AI and GIANT's capabilities (Goddard Image Analysis and Navigation Tool). 

GIANT is an optical navigation tool that successfully verified navigation data for NASA's OSIRIS-REx mission. This went on to collect a sample from asteroid Bennu.

Yew told PopSci that while the AI is still being developed, he is already making improvements. The system will first be put through its paces in a virtual setting before (hopefully) using actual lunar landscape data from one of the Artemis missions.

"We want to test the robustness of the algorithm," he added. Yew described this as throwing a person (or robot) anywhere on the Moon and being able to locate them anywhere. Imagining that little yellow man on Google Street Maps much?

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2022-12-28 15:47:00Z
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Incredible Images Captured by Webb Space Telescope in 2022 - Geospatial World

Here are some amazing pictures of space captured by NASA’s JWST:

Cosmic Cliffs

JWST Image
NGC 3324 (Image: NASA via AFP)

This seemingly appearing image of a crested hill filled with flickering stars is actually the birthplace of a star-forming region called NGC 3324 in the Carina Nebula. Captured in infrared light it is the edge of the giant, gaseous cavity within NGC 3324, and the tallest “peaks” in this image are about 7 light-years tall.

Stephan’s Quintet

This image of Stephan’s Quintet, a visual grouping of five galaxies is taken by MIRI (Mid-Infrared Instrument) through its powerful mid-infrared vision which pierces through enshrouded regions to reveal huge shock waves and tidal tails, gas and stars stripped from the outer regions of the galaxies by interactions.

JWST Image
Stephan’s Quintet (Image: NASA via AFP)

Southern Ring Nebula

Informally known as the Southern Ring Nebula, this planetary nebula catalogued as NGC 3132 is approximately 2,500 light-years away and has been sending out rings of gas and dust for thousands of years.

JWST Image
NGC 3132 (Image: NASA via AFP)

Jupiter

Jupiter, the largest planet in our solar system is seen with faint rings which are a million times fainter than the planet itself. Also visible are two tiny moons called Amalthea and Adrastea.

JWST Image
Jupiter (Image: NASA via AFP)

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2022-12-28 08:58:41Z
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Selasa, 27 Desember 2022

‘Exceptionally rare’ find proves dinosaur species were not picky eaters, researchers say - South China Morning Post

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  1. ‘Exceptionally rare’ find proves dinosaur species were not picky eaters, researchers say  South China Morning Post
  2. 'Exceptionally rare' discovery shows a dinosaur ate a mammal around 120 million years ago  USA TODAY
  3. Extremely rare evidence of dinosaurs consuming mammals spotted  WION
  4. A rare discovery of dinosaur remains preserved with its last meal  Tech Explorist
  5. Rare evidence that dinosaurs feasted on mammals uncovered  CNN
  6. View Full Coverage on Google News

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2022-12-27 20:35:48Z
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Senin, 26 Desember 2022

15-metric ton meteorite crashed in Africa, revealing 2 new minerals - Local 3 News

Scientists have identified two minerals never before seen on Earth in a meteorite weighing 15.2 metric tons (33,510 pounds).

The minerals came from a 70-gram (nearly 2.5-ounce) slice of the meteorite, which was discovered in Somalia in 2020 and is the ninth-largest meteorite ever found, according to a news release from the University of Alberta.

Chris Herd, curator of the university's meteorite collection, received samples of the space rock so he could classify it. As he was examining it, something unusual caught his eye — some parts of the sample weren't identifiable by a microscope. He then sought advice from Andrew Locock, head of the university's Electron Microprobe Laboratory, since Locock has experience describing new minerals.

"The very first day he did some analyses, he said, 'You've got at least two new minerals in there,'" Herd, a professor in the university's department of Earth and atmospheric sciences, said in a statement. "That was phenomenal. Most of the time it takes a lot more work than that to say there's a new mineral."

One mineral's name — elaliite — derives from the space object itself, which is called the "El Ali" meteorite since it was found near the town of El Ali in central Somalia.

Herd named the second one elkinstantonite after Lindy Elkins-Tanton, vice president of Arizona State University's Interplanetary Initiative. Elkins-Tanton is also a regents professor in that university's School of Earth and Space Exploration and the principal investigator of NASA's upcoming Psyche mission — a journey to a metal-rich asteroid orbiting the sun between Mars and Jupiter, according to the space agency.

"Lindy has done a lot of work on how the cores of planets form, how these iron nickel cores form, and the closest analogue we have are iron meteorites," Herd said. "It made sense to name a mineral after her and recognize her contributions to science."

The International Mineralogical Association's approval of the two new minerals in November of this year "indicates that the work is robust," said Oliver Tschauner, a mineralogist and professor of research in the department of geoscience at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas.

"Whenever you find a new mineral, it means that the actual geological conditions, the chemistry of the rock, was different than what's been found before," Herd said. "That's what makes this exciting: In this particular meteorite you have two officially described minerals that are new to science."

The role of lab-created minerals in discovery

Locock's quick identification was possible because similar minerals had been synthetically created before, and he was able to match the composition of the newly discovered minerals with their human-made counterparts, according to the University of Alberta release.

"Material scientists do this all the time," said Alan Rubin, a meteorite researcher and former adjunct professor and research geochemist in the department of earth, planetary and space sciences at the University of California, Los Angeles. "They can create new compounds — one, just to see what's physically possible just as a research interest, and others ... will say, 'We're seeking a compound that has certain properties for some practical or commercial application, like conductivity or high strain or high melting temperature.

"It's just fortuitous that a researcher will find a mineral in a meteorite or a terrestrial rock that hasn't been known before, and then very often, that same compound will have been created previously by material scientists."

Both new minerals are phosphates of iron, Tschauner said. A phosphate is a salt or ester of a phosphoric acid.

"Phosphates in iron meteorites are secondary products: They form through oxidation of phosphides ... which are rare primary components of iron meteorites," he said via email. "Hence, the two new phosphates tell us about oxidation processes that occurred in the meteorite material. It remains to be seen if the oxidation occurred in space or on Earth, after the fall, but as far as I know, many of these meteorite phosphates formed in space. In either case, water is probably the reactant that caused the oxidation."

The findings were presented in November at the University of Alberta's Space Exploration Symposium. The revelations "broaden our perspective on the natural materials that can be found and can be formed in the solar system," Rubin said.

The El Ali meteorite the minerals came from appears to have been sent to China in search of a buyer, Herd said.

Meanwhile, the researchers are still analyzing the minerals — and potentially a third one — to find out what the conditions were in the meteorite when the space rock formed. And newly discovered minerals could have exciting implications for the future, he added.

"Whenever there's a new material that's known, material scientists are interested too because of the potential uses in a wide range of things in society," Herd said.

The-CNN-Wire™ & © 2022 Cable News Network, Inc., a Warner Bros. Discovery Company. All rights reserved.

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2022-12-26 13:40:00Z
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Minggu, 25 Desember 2022

In Pics: These Stunning Images Captured By NASA's James Webb Telescope Is A Treat For Space Lovers - NDTV

In Pics: These Stunning Images Captured By NASA's James Webb Telescope Is A Treat For Space Lovers

Webb produced this detailed image of the Cartwheel and two smaller companion galaxies in August 2022

Described as the world's most powerful telescope, NASA's James Web telescope has captured some stunning images of our universe this year, leaving space lovers mesmerized. The next-generation observatory, priced at $10 billion was launched atop the Ariane 5 rocket from the Kourou spaceport in French Guiana on December 25, 2021. Named after a former NASA director, Webb follows in the footsteps of the legendary Hubble but offers glimpses of the universe that were inaccessible to us before. Webb is about 100 times more powerful than Hubble.

On its first anniversary, here are 5 incredible images captured by the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) in 2022 that have revolutionized space imagery.

Deepest Infrared Image Of Early Universe

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In its first picture taken in July 2022, Webb revealed the "deepest and sharpest infrared image of the early universe" ever taken, going back 13 billion years. The stunning shot, which was revealed in a White House briefing by President Joe Biden, showed thousands of galaxies overflowing and featured the faintest objects ever observed, colorized from infrared to blue, orange, and white tones. The image showed the galaxy cluster SMACS 0723 as it appeared 4.6 billion years ago, with many more galaxies in front of and behind the cluster.

Carina Nebula    

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The same month, the telescope revealed emerging stellar nurseries and individual stars in the Carina Nebula that were previously obscured. Called the Cosmic Cliffs, Webb's seemingly three-dimensional picture looks like craggy mountains on a moonlit evening. In reality, it is the edge of the giant, gaseous cavity within NGC 3324, and the tallest "peaks" in this image are about 7 light-years high.

Neptune's Rings

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In September 2022, the telescope captured the clearest view of Neptune's rings after over 30 years. In 1989, NASA's Voyager 2 became the first spacecraft to capture the image of Neptune. According to NASA, Webb did not just capture the clearest view of this distant planet's rings since the Voyager 2 spacecraft flew by it in 1989, but its cameras also revealed the ice giant in a whole new light.  The Webb also captured seven of Neptune's 14 known moons.

The Cartwheel Galaxy

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In August 2022, Webb's powerful infrared gaze produced this detailed image of the Cartwheel and two smaller companion galaxies against a backdrop of many other galaxies. The image offered a fresh perspective on the evolution of the galaxy over the course of billions of years, according to a release from NASA. The Cartwheel Galaxy, located about 500 million light-years away in the Sculptor constellation, is a rare sight. Its appearance, much like that of the wheel of a wagon, is the result of an intense event - a high-speed collision between a large spiral galaxy and a smaller galaxy not visible in this image.


The Pillars of Creation

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In October 2022, a lush and highly detailed landscape- the iconic "Pillars of Creation'' was caught by James Webb Telescope. The twinkling of thousands of stars illuminates the telescope's first shot of the gigantic gold, copper, and brown columns standing in the midst of the cosmos. The "Pillars of Creation" are located 6,500 light years from Earth, in the Eagle Nebula of our Milky Way galaxy.

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2022-12-25 18:25:00Z
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Take a tour of winter on Mars with NASA in this holiday video - Space.com

NASA is making the case for a "winter wonderland" on Mars.

"Dreaming of a white Christmas" might never bring to mind the alien landscapes that appear at frigid corners of the Red Planet. But the space agency is enthused by it all. Its many missions over the past several decades reveal icy oddities on Mars, as well as how much Mars sometimes resembles Earth. 

As NASA is now one mission deep into its Artemis program, learning how humans can thrive off our planet is crucial. Water ice is a valuable discovery to that end. And the new video (opens in new tab) from the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in California — a major hub for NASA's robotic explorers in space — reveals what snow, frost and ice looks like on Mars.  

Related: Mars is a 'winter wonderland' in this frosty (and stunning) image

"If you go to the right locations, you will find water ice, just like the one we have on Earth," JPL Mars scientist Sylvain Piquex says in the Dec. 21 video, which NASA released on YouTube (opens in new tab). When NASA's Phoenix Mars lander scraped the arctic Martian ground in 2008, it saw water ice just below the surface. 

"This is the kind of water ice that astronauts could potentially use in the future when we go there," Piquex adds. 

Mars also has dry ice, a solid form of carbon dioxide (CO2). Rather than melt, like water ice does, CO2 ice sublimates. And as this material turns from solid to gas, it creates alien landscapes. 

"For example, we see spider-shaped features, fans, geysers, Dalmatian spots, fried eggs, all kinds of unique objects that are really challenging to understand, but that are beautiful and unique to Mars," Piquex says. 

Strange "fried egg features" on Mars stand out as stunning winter features on the Red Planet. (Image credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech/University of Arizona)

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Ice crystals also fall on Mars, like snow on Earth. When Phoenix used its Canadian-built LIDAR (or, light detection and ranging) to shoot a laser into the planet's sky, it detected water ice crystals falling from a cloud

Frost also coats some places on Mars. NASA's Viking landers captured images of water frost in the 1970s, and more recently, its Odyssey spacecraft and the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter have observed its CO2 frost.

"CO2 frost [is] something that we don't have on Earth. It is extremely cold where you would find CO2 ice, something like -190 degrees Fahrenheit," Piquex says. 

That's much colder than a December "bomb cyclone" that the U.S. is gearing up to face this weekend. 

But NASA put winters on these two planets into perspective in an accompanying statement (opens in new tab).

"No region of Mars gets more than a few feet of snow, most of which falls over extremely flat areas," the statement reads. "Cold as it is, don’t expect snow drifts worthy of the Rocky Mountains."

Follow Doris Elin Urrutia on Twitter @salazar_elin. Follow us on Twitter @Spacedotcom or on Facebook.  

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2022-12-25 15:57:47Z
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