TORONTO — Ten days in to the season, still decidedly morning-after territory for a championship team, there’s no arguing the results of these Toronto Raptors. They hold the second-best true shooting percentage in basketball. Also, a top-five net rating. Pascal Siakam is now Karl Malone. And, most importantly, they have four wins from five games — the lone loss coming on the road in Boston where the Celtics were jumping out of the gym, pulling down an absurd 21 offensive boards which allowed them to attempt 31 more field goals than Toronto. And the Raptors still fell by only six.
But is the process sustainable? Can they keep playing this way? Specifically, can their two point guards — their only two point guards — continue to log nearly 40 minutes a night? Don’t the Raptors need someone else to help shoulder some of the load? Do they even have someone else to run the floor, make plays, facilitate? Is the team not inviting future trouble to its dual guards, whether in the form of fatigue or injury — or the former leading to the latter?
It has to be a cause of anxiety for Raptors fans, particularly after Kyle Lowry and Fred VanVleet each played heavy minutes again in Wednesday’s 125-113 victory over the Detroit Pistons. Lowry (39.3) and VanVleet (38.8) entered the night first and third, respectively, in minutes per game this season. That included an overtime contest, which skews the numbers slightly. But even if you remove that one, they were each over 37 minutes per game, a mark only four other NBA players are averaging this season.
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VanVleet at least got Wednesday’s fourth quarter off after playing every possession from about five minutes into the second quarter through the end of the third. With the Raptors in cruise control, and VanVleet — who’s perpetually battling some sort of minor physical ailment — still carrying an ankle injury he suffered on opening night, there was no sense pushing him past the half-hour he’d already played.
But VanVleet being off the court meant Lowry had to be on it to run the offence. So, even as the Raptors flirted with a 20-point lead during Wednesday’s fourth quarter, Lowry played right through to the game’s final 85 seconds, when he finally checked out and, quite amusingly, received a technical foul for commentary provided as he was taking his seat on the bench.
“I mean, I’ve got to do what I’ve got to do to help our team win. And whatever coach decides to do, you know, I’ll fall into line with that,” Lowry said of his minutes. “Whatever it takes to win games and make us a better team. If it’s less minutes, more minutes — whatever it is. As long as we win games.”
In the end, Lowry — a 33-year-old coming off July thumb surgery — logged 37 minutes and 47 seconds Wednesday, a slight improvement from the 38:11 he put in during a game 48 hours prior. It was still the fourth time in five games in nine nights that he’s been up over 37, and no matter what happens between now and Toronto’s next game Saturday in Milwaukee, it’s extremely unlikely anyone in the league will have exceeded his average of 39 per night.
“They’re a little high for me. Yeah, they’re a little high. I’d like to trim them,” Raptors head coach Nick Nurse said of Lowry’s minutes. “I’m excited that I trimmed them from 40 to 37 tonight. I’m working on it. If I can trim a couple more minutes here and there we’ll be in the ballpark.
“He likes to play, right? He likes to play. Sometimes, we’ve got to control that a little bit better from our standpoint for down the road. Certainly he’s got us off to a good start. He’s certainly playing great. But we’ll try to trim a little bit off here as we get a little more comfortable.”
That’s going to be tough considering Nurse’s options. Aside from undrafted two-way rookie Shamorie Ponds — who has yet to dress for a game — Lowry and VanVleet are the only true point guards the Raptors roster. The void left by the departure of Delon Wright in last season’s Marc Gasol deal has never been filled. Jeremy Lin occupied the vacancy for a spell before falling out of favour with the coaching staff, while Jordan Loyd was given only sparse opportunities. This season, they’re both playing overseas.
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And that Lowry and VanVleet both start and finish for this team — rather than being staggered in a more traditional starter and backup rotation — exacerbates the issue. Without a trusted third option, Nurse has to take turns extending Lowry or VanVleet in between their heavy shifts at the beginning and end of games in order to have a reliable ballhandler on the floor with the team’s reserves in the middle. So far this season, the Raptors have yet to deploy a non-garbage time lineup that didn’t include one of Lowry and VanVleet. And it will probably take one of the two not dressing for it to happen.
But what’s Nurse to do when Lowry and VanVleet are playing so well, both individually and together? The Raptors have played to a 12.5 net rating with the duo on the floor this season, scoring 111.5 points per 100 possessions while allowing the opposition to score only 99. You want them out there at the end of games. And Nurse wants them on the court at the beginning, too, when the Raptors prioritize defensive energy and fast-paced offence.
They’re both reliable, willing shooters; vigorous, physical defenders; aggressive, careening drivers. Which presents its own problems. They’re going to be fouled, they’re going to hit the floor, they’re going to feel their minutes. Getting knocked around is integral to their games.
Think about how often you see Lowry or VanVleet drive to the basket, take contact, and end up crash-landing somewhere around the baseline. Or how often you see them get under whoever they’re guarding, sticking their jaws well within range of elbows and shoulders. A battering is received fighting through screens and wrestling with much larger players for rebounds in the paint. Add in the responsibility of carrying the ball up the floor, facilitating the offence, trying to create off the dribble — it’s a lot.
Having the luxury of a playmaking seven-footer like Marc Gasol helps. He’ll sometimes orchestrate the offence from the elbows, letting Lowry and VanVleet catch their breath working off the ball. But that’s not quite the same as having a third ball-handling guard who could let the pair get proper rest on the bench more often.
That role could eventually be filled by Patrick McCaw, who Nurse is high on, often praising the 24-year-old’s energy and intelligence at both ends. There’s certainly no denying McCaw’s athleticism and bounce, and the ways he can combine those traits with good vision and anticipation to cause problems for the opposition. But consistently putting it all together under the bright lights has been an issue so far.
It could be Norman Powell, who’s enjoying a bigger share of the offence this season in the wake of Kawhi Leonard’s departure. He’s long demonstrated an ability to create off the dribble and attack the rim. But, to this point in his career, Powell’s played exclusively as a two-guard and never been given the opportunity to run Toronto’s offence.
It could be Terrence Davis, but he’s an undrafted surprise story who Wednesday appeared in his fifth-ever NBA game. It could be Siakam serving as a point forward, but isn’t enough already being asked of him? It could be Malcolm Miller, but he’s outside Toronto’s rotation looking in.
Or it could be Lowry and VanVleet continuing to shoulder immense workloads until something gives. Surely the minutes they’re currently logging are unsustainable, and potentially irresponsible considering how taxing it was playing through to the NBA Finals last season, the amount of volume they’ll be asked to absorb in the latter half of this one, and the effect fatigue has on injury risk.
So, there’s your primary dilemma for a 4-1 team: how can the Raptors get these two more rest without a sacrifice in the team’s overall quality of play? Currently, there’s no easy answer. But the Raptors need to find one.
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October 31, 2019 at 09:01PM
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