Two large masses of space debris may collide tonight, and fill the Earth’s low orbit with junk - Whitecourt Star

'This is probably one of the potentially worst accidental collisions that we've seen for a while'

Rounding the Sun on July 3rd and currently headed for the outer Solar System, Comet NEOWISE (C/2020 F3) has been growing brighter in the predawn skies of planet Earth. PHOTO BY NASA/ISS

Two massive pieces of space debris could collide tonight, which could fill Earth’s orbit with debris and make space operations impossible.

The two objects — a discarded Russian satellite and a Chinese rocket — have a combined weight of around 2,800 kilograms. They’re hurtling directly towards each other at high speeds, and are set to meet 991 kilometres over the Weddell Sea, just off the Antarctic Peninsula.

“This is probably one of the potentially worst accidental collisions that we’ve seen for a while,” Alice Gorman, space archaeologist at Flinders University in Australia, told ScienceAlert.

LeoLabs is a company that tracks space debris in Low Earth Orbit to prevent collisions. They tweeted on Tuesday to warn about the possibility of the collision, putting the likelihood anywhere between one and 20 per cent — which they say is dangerously high.

We are monitoring a very high risk conjunction between two large defunct objects in LEO. Multiple data points show miss distance <25m and Pc between 1% and 20%. Combined mass of both objects is ~2,800kg.

Object 1: 19826
Object 2: 36123
TCA: Oct 16 00:56UTC
Event altitude: 991km pic.twitter.com/6yWDx7bziw

— LeoLabs, Inc. (@LeoLabs_Space) October 13, 2020

While there’s no risk of harming anyone on Earth, if the debris collide, it could be the start of a feedback loop of increased orbital junk that would make space travel increasingly difficult. If enough debris fills Earth’s orbit, there will be a significant danger to active satellites and even rocket launches.

“We’re not yet in a position where we can actively remove any debris like this,” said Gorman. “So it’ll be up there for a while. And because of the altitude of about 1,000 kilometres, this stuff isn’t going to reenter within a matter of weeks or months. Some of it is likely to be up there for quite some time.”

During that time, the debris creates a risk for other objects, like active satellites. At higher orbits, space debris has even forced the International Space Station (ISS) to make costly maneuvers to avoid the junk, which could damage the station.

Artist’s impression released September 1, 2011 by the European Space Agency (ESA) shows the debris field in low-Earth orbit (LEO) which extends to 2000 km above the Earth’s surface, which is based on actual data, not items in their actual size or density. PHOTO BY AHP/HO/HANDOUT.

This is not the first close encounter of the year. In January, a decommissioned space telescope and an experimental U.S. payload passed within about 47 metres of one another.

As in the January near-miss, there is no way to communicate with either of the defunct objects and have them shift their position out of harm’s way. The Chinese rocket stage is part of a Long March 4B rocket launched on May 10, 1999. The satellite is a Russian Parus military satellite launched on Feb. 22, 1989.

Related

The concern over an increase in large collisions relates to the potential of triggering the Kessler Syndrome, where access to space becomes increasingly difficult, as more and more junk clutters orbit. Eventually, a feedback loop could make near-Earth space inaccessible.

“We’re not yet at that Kessler Syndrome point. But how much closer in time does this bring us to that point?” said Gorman.

While there are efforts underway to clean up space debris, they are still a ways off.

The objects are expected to pass — or collide — at around 9 p.m. EST. LeoLabs will continue to monitor the situation and post updates. After the expected pass, they will look for an increase in debris shower, which would mean the worst: the objects smashed into each other.

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2020-10-16 04:05:35Z
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