Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 257 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Sep 2022 - Space Ref

Space weather

NOAA SWPC

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 14/1019Z from Region 3098 (N18W65). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Sep, 16 Sep, 17 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 340 km/s at 14/1945Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 14/1919Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 14/1932Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2 pfu at 14/0640Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 15800 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (15 Sep), quiet to active levels on day two (16 Sep) and unsettled to active levels on day three (17 Sep). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (15 Sep, 16 Sep, 17 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 15 Sep-17 Sep
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 15/15/15
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Sep 144
Predicted 15 Sep-17 Sep 155/150/145
90 Day Mean 14 Sep 123

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Sep 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Sep 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Sep-17 Sep 006/005-012/015-015/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Sep-17 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/30/40
Minor Storm 05/10/20
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/30
Major-severe storm 20/30/35

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2022-09-15 03:49:02Z
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