Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 154 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jun 2023 - Space Ref

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NOAA SWPC

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 02/2242Z from Region 3323 (S07E45). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (04 Jun, 05 Jun, 06 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 465 km/s at 03/1108Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 03/0533Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 03/0806Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 319 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (04 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (05 Jun, 06 Jun). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (04 Jun, 05 Jun, 06 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 04 Jun-06 Jun
Class M 35/30/30
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Jun 165
Predicted 04 Jun-06 Jun 165/160/160
90 Day Mean 03 Jun 152

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jun 008/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jun 010/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jun-06 Jun 011/015-011/012-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jun-06 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/15/05
Minor Storm 15/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/15/15
Major-severe storm 20/10/05

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2023-06-04 00:53:05Z
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